November 2, 2020 (The Final Prediction)
Before I start, I have to explain something. My last prediction is much different from the final prediction. Over the past week, there has been a lot that has changed in the presidential race. When I made last week’s prediction, republicans were doing better in early voting returns. Democrats have turned that around in many states such as Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Arizona. This is why my presidential, house, and senate predictions have changed so much. Also, I have more toss-ups on the board, and I’m not making any predictions on how big of a margin Trump or Biden will win states by. I honestly think that tomorrow night could be crazy and that anything could happen at this point. Disclaimer: Once again, I’m not perfect, and this could be wrong. I’m using early voting statistics and election trends from 2018 and 2016 to make this prediction. I’m also ignoring most of the polling data. Once again, I could be wrong, and I’m not afraid to admit that. However, at this point in the race, millions of ballots have already been cast, and I just don’t see how most of the polling data could be accurate.
Georgia and Texas: First, I want to say to all of the people thinking that Georgia and Texas will flip to Biden tomorrow: It probably isn’t going to happen. Right now 53% of all early and mail-in voters in Texas are republicans, and only 36% have been democrats. In Georgia, 51% of all early and mail-in voters have been republicans, and only 42% have been democrats. (This is according to TargetSmart) If the majority of election day voters tomorrow are republicans like the “experts” have been predicting, there is very little chance the Texas or Georgia will even be close to flipping for Biden. I see Trump winning both states by similar margins to his 2016 victories in each, but it could get a little closer.
Ohio and Iowa: Four years ago these were considered swing states. However, even in 2018 which was a very good year for democrats, both governors races in Ohio and Iowa went to the republicans. Right now Republicans are leading in early and mail-in vote turnout in Ohio 48% to 38%. Trump will probably win Ohio, even if it does end up being close. Right now Democrats are leading the early/ mail-in vote in Iowa; however, turnout in the rural (republican majority) counties is low. This most likely means that republicans are waiting until tomorrow to vote. Also, a recent Des Moines Register poll had Trump leading in the state by 7%. Even if it does get close in Iowa, I still see Trump winning it.
North Carolina and Florida: These are going to be nail bitters. Republicans have done a good job of registering new voters in North Carolina over the past year. However, democrat turnout has been higher in the early/ mail-in vote. Republicans will have to really so up to vote tomorrow if they are to take the lead in this state. Florida is also a close one. Democrat turnout has been lower in Maine-Dade county which is the major population center of the state. However, that disparity could easily be made up on election day. Another key point to note is that Trump has really made a push to gain Cuban voters in the southern tip of the state. They could have a major impact on which way the state goes. If Trump loses Florida, the election is basically over and Biden has won. If Trump wins Florida, he’s still got a shot at winning the election.
Arizona: This used to be a red state. However, there are a lot of RINO type republicans in the state that don’t like Trump. Also, the democrats have gained new voters in the state over the course of the last two election cycles. So far republican turnout in the state has been decent, but democrat turnout has been high. If republicans turnout tomorrow in large enough numbers, Arizona might go red one last time. Arizona could go either way. Polling shows independents favoring Biden. This state is definitely a toss-up that Trump has to win.
Nevada and New Hampshire: Both of these states generally favor democrats, but Trump does have a shot at winning them. Republican turnout has been high in Nevada. Also, Trump has held multiple rallies in each state. (Also Biden has not held a single rally or campaign event in New Hampshire since the democrat primaries). I would still say the chances of Trump winning them are slim but don’t count them out.
The Rustbelt (PA, MI, WI, MN): These are going to be a mystery. They are definitely toss-ups and could go either way. Overall turnout is down in all four states right now, which means that a lot of people are waiting until tomorrow to vote. Trump and Biden have both held tons of rallies in all four states, and both campaigns have been pouring millions of dollars into ads spending here. I really don’t know how these states will go. If the polling is right, Trump’s going to lose them by big margins. If Trump’s campaign, Trafalgar (a pollster), and the anecdotal evidence are right, Trump could win them. If Trump wins one of the four states, he will win (assuming he wins AZ, FL, NC, OH, and IA). Overall, I think these four states will decide the election.
The Take Home Message: Don’t count Trump out of this. He’s fighting an uphill battle, but if he did it once in 2016, he might be able to pull it off again. Get out and vote tomorrow. Get your family, friends, and co-workers, and go make a Trump victory a reality. The future of our country depends on it.
October 23, 2020 (After the Last Debate and at the Start of Early Voting)
I have to say that after Trump’s first debate performance, I was losing hope that he could still win re-election. Even after he got sick with covid, he faced negative story after negative story in the news. Joe Biden was outspending him with campaign ads at a nearly 2:1 ratio (thanks to Biden’s mega-wealthy donors). Then, the story of Hunter Biden’s laptop broke. Trump recovered from the virus, and he came back stronger than ever before in the last debate with Biden. The tides have turned, and Trump has the momentum behind him heading into the last week before the election. Trump is hitting the campaign trail hard and is planning to hold 4 and 5 rallies a day in swing states. What’s even better for Trump and republicans down-ballot is that republican voters are massively over-performing in voter turnout. So without ranting farther, here’s the electoral map.
Initially, most polls were showing Trump trailing Biden in North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. Most polls also had Trump and Biden neck and neck in Texas and Georgia. It was predicted that most registered democrat voters and Biden voters in general would vote by mail or early in person, and most Trump voters and registered republicans would vote in person on election day. However, that’s not what we’re seeing right now from early voting returns. Right now registered republicans are showing up in droves to vote. Right now more registered republicans have voted than registered democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and many more states. Republican and Democrat voter turnout is tied in Arizona, and the Democrats have a slight edge in voter turnout in Florida, North Carolina, and Iowa. So what does all this mean? The election pundits were expecting that Biden would have a massive lead in the early vote and mail in voting nationwide. This meant that Trump would have to have an even bigger lead among the people voting in person on election day to make up the difference. Now, if Trump is already leading or tied in key states with early and mail in voting and he wins the majority of voters who vote in person on election day, he just might win in a landslide. Obviously, I think the chances of that are slim, but this is still great news for Trump. Keep in mind, my election model is only accurate if: republicans don’t fall behind in the early/mail in voting and if the vast majority of voters on election day vote for Trump. Newsflash: people aren’t perfect, and my prediction could be wrong. Don’t think that Trump is going to win in a landslide with no effort. Go and vote, and bring your friends and family members with you.
- States that are looking good for Trump: Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada
- States where Trump needs to improve: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine (2nd District)
- The bottom line: This is anyone’s game, so get out and vote
Late August Prediction (After DNC)
Nothing has really changed after the DNC for Biden. Biden did perform much better at his acceptance speech than expected, and the democrat base seems to be more united. This does give Biden a slight boost but really doesn’t change much on the map in the long run. What has changed since early August is that Trump is performing better with independent voters in North Carolina, Arizona, and the Rustbelt.
Brake down of the Prediction:
- Arizona – Trump is performing much better with independents there in recent polling. Biden is in the lead in polls by about 4 to 5 percent, but there are lots of undecided voters. I would expect it to go down to the wire on election night.
- Nevada / New Mexico / Colorado – There hasn’t been much polling in these states in months. However, what little polling there has been has shown Trump doing slightly better. Biden’s bad performance with Hispanic voters in the dem primary and rioting is why I have New Mexico and Colorado only in the lean dem column. Also, Trump may have a real chance at flipping Nevada.
- Wisconsin / Michigan / Pennsylvania – Biden still holds a lead in these states. However, Trump has performed better with independent voters recently, and polling is showing lots of undecided voters. They could still go to Trump again and surprise everyone like in 2016.
- Minnesota – Trump has been tied with Biden in this state in recent polls. The rioting has definitely helped Trump. With independents favoring Trump, he has a real chance at winning this state.
- Ohio / Iowa / Texas / Georgia – These are all states that Trump won in 2016, and chances are Trump will win them again. Texas and Georgia might get closer, but republicans were able to win them in 2018. I don’t see these states flipping to dem yet.
- Florida – This is another state that Biden is leading in. This is a state that Trump really needs to spend some time in because he is behind. However, with the massive boat rallies happening there, it could be a sign of hidden Trump voters.
- North Carolina – Trump has really improved in this state. Early in the year, Trump was behind, but now he’s leading with independent voters by about 10%. I would expect Trump to win this state by about 1% to 4% if this trend continues.
- Virginia / New Hampshire / The Northeast – Virginia and New Hampshire have shown stronger support for Biden recently. I would expect Biden to win them. However, in the case of a Trump landslide victory, I could see Virginia and New Hampshire flipping with the rest of the Northeast becoming much closer.
I think there is a real chance that Trump or Biden could win in a landslide. There’s still a lot that could happen. However, at this point I wouldn’t count out a Trump landslide victory. I’ve don’t some blog post on this, and I think Trump has a realistic opportunity to win big.
Early August Prediction
Analysis: Trump has started to come back up in the polls this month, and he is gaining support in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Also, Trump is doing better in the polls in Georgia and Texas. Trump is also leading in polls in Ohio and Iowa. However, Biden is leading in Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire, and the Rustbelt.
- Trump will probably win Georgia and Texas. In 2018, republicans were able to win by narrow margins in both states, and chances are democrats won’t do as good as they did in 2018.
- Biden could win Arizona and Florida. He’s leading in the polls in both states. In 2018, Kyrsten Sinema (D) was able to beat her republican opponent in Arizona’s senate race, so Trump could definitely lose Arizona. It’s only August, and there’s still a lot that could happen before the election. I think they could go either way. They’re a toss up for now.
- North Carolina is more of a neck and neck race. This state could go either way. Once again, it’s only August and a lot could happen.
- The Rustbelt is a mystery just like it was in 2016. Polls are showing Biden in the lead, but they showed Hillary ahead too. There’s a lot of silent Trump support there, and I think things will change there after the first debates. They’re a toss up for now, but that will change as we get closer to election day.
- It looks like Biden will win in Minnesota for now, but the George Floyd riots have probably helped Trump in the state. Once again, after the first debate I think Trump will improve here.
The debates will change everything. Right now Biden is in the lead in the polls, but that’s only because people haven’t seen Joe Biden. For the past five months Biden’s been hiding in his basement. His gaffes are getting worse, and he is definitely experiencing some type of cognitive decline. He will NOT last on a debate stage against Trump. After the first debates Trump will improve. Plus, the Trump campaign is holding back on a lot of their best attack ads until Joe Biden is the official nominee. There’s still a lot of time for a lot to change.