I was just recently looking through 538 which is a website similar to real clear politics. They upload all of the recent polling data from almost every pollster out there, and it is controlled by Nate Silver who is supposed to be a statistics expert. He’s made several election predictions this cycle, and right now he is only giving Trump a 12% chance to win this election. On the flip side, he’s giving Biden an 87% chance of winning the election. This is really no surprise since every major poll from CNN, ABC, FOX, YouGov, Washington Post, and many others show Biden leading Trump by 5,10, and even 14%. What’s more is that the majority of states that he thinks will be close during this election are mostly red states that Trump won four years ago. Nate Silver is projecting that Biden will most likely win Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He also has Iowa, Texas, Ohio, and Georgia as essentially tossup states that could go either way. Here’s what the electoral college would look like according to 538’s election forecast:
Basically, Nate Silver is projecting that the election is already over and that it would take a miracle for Trump to win. Obviously, this is a little concerning. 538 has Joe winning in a landslide.
But, just for second, forget about the polls. Let’s look at the Trump and Biden campaigns. Here’s a map of the number of visits that Harris, Biden, Pence, and Trump have made to each state. This includes debates, rallies, campaign events, and a few other things. The Trump and Pence map is in red. The Biden and Harris map is in blue.
Biden and Harris haven’t made a single visit to Texas or Iowa. They’ve only made very limited visits to Georgia and Arizona. They haven’t even made many visits to North Carolina, Ohio, or Florida. However, They’ve spent the vast majority of their time in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Trump and Pence on the other hand have made Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania their top priority. They’ve also not neglected Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia. Trump has even made an effort to flip states that Clinton won in 2016 like New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota.
It’s clear what each campaign’s strategies are. Biden’s strategy is to simply keep Trump from winning the rust belt states that he won in 2016. That’s why he’s not even making an attempt to campaign hard in Arizona, Georgia, or North Carolina. Trump’s strategy on the other hand is to hang on to Florida, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio. Then after that he just has to pick off one of the three rustbelt states he won in 2016, and he will win the election. Trump is also making an effort to expand the battleground and win a state like Nevada, Minnesota, or New Hampshire that Clinton won four years ago.
This is what brings us to the main point of this post. Biden is not campaigning like he’s 10% ahead of Trump. If Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are safe blue (according to 538) why is Biden even campaigning there? If Biden is slightly ahead in sunbelt states like Arizona and North Carolina, then why has he made so few visits to them? If Biden is tied with Trump in Texas and Georgia, why is he not spending all of his time and effort there? Why is it that Biden and Kamala Harris Combined have only made three visits to Georgia and not a single visit to Texas.
The Answer: Biden is not winning by 10% nationwide. Biden and Trump and tied in a neck and neck race. Republicans are beating Democrat turnout in mail-in and early voting in Georgia, Texas, and Ohio right now. This is a big deal because early voting and mail-in voting was supposed to be dominated by Democrats, and in person election day voting was supposed to be dominated by Republicans. If Republicans are already ahead or tied in most key states right now and most Republicans show up to vote on election day, we could be looking at a big Trump victory.
Don’t get discouraged by the polls. In fact, at this point, they’re basically useless. Trump has the enthusiasm, a good campaign strategy, and the most loyal voter base. There are many Trump supporters who would crawl over broken glass to vote for him come election day, including myself. We have the upper hand in this election. Now is the time to get as many friends, co-workers, and family as you can and go vote.