Are the polls really that bad for Trump?

Recently there’s been a lot of talk about whether or not Trump can win re-election or not. The vast majority of polls show him trailing Joe Biden by around 10 percent. In fact, the real clear politics polling average has Biden leading Trump by 8.7 percent. You would think this would spell doom for Trump this November, but there is one thing you should consider before you think that this race is over.

The polls were wrong in 2016, and they are even worse now. Almost every poll out made by a main stream news group is complete garbage, but I’m not just going to rant without proof. Take a look at these numbers.

RepublicanDemocratIndependents
33%37%30%

In the 2016 and 2018 national elections about 33 percent of all the voters were registered republicans, 37 percent were registered democrats, and 30 percent of voters were not registered with either party. Not much has changed since then, so a good pollster should try to sample voters following this model.

Now take a look at this YouGov poll from a few days ago. Here’s the voters that they sampled for their poll.

RepublicanDemocratIndependent
27%39%33%

This is honestly laughable. They over sampled registered democrat voters by 2 percent and independents by 3 percent. Then they under sampled registered republican voters by 5 percent. The poll showed Biden leading with 48% of the voters with Trump only at 41% of the vote.

I’m no genius, but it’s not hard to see what’s going on here. YouGov, whether they did it on purpose or not, over sampled democrats and under sampled republicans. It’s no wonder that their poll shows Biden with a big lead, and just in case you wondered, almost EVERY pollster out there does this.

The moral of the story is that Trump is not out of this race yet. Although he is down a little right now, it’s not by much. If you are a Trump supporter don’t give up because this isn’t over. The news media wants you to believe that Trump can’t win, so you won’t show up to vote in November. These polls are rigged and faked, but Trump’s supporters are alive and well. Whatever happens this November make sure to get out and vote because that’s the only way that Trump gets re-elected.

One thought on “Are the polls really that bad for Trump?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: