2020 Senate Election

November 2, 2020 (Final Prediction)

Check out the Presidential election prediction as well.

Democrat Gains:

  • Maine: Susan Collins (R) is fighting an uphill battle and polling and early voting isn’t favoring her. Mostly likely she will lose to Gideon (D)
  • Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) is another republican in trouble. Colorado has moved so far away from the GOP that it is very unlikely for him to win re-election against Hickenlooper (D).
  • Arizona: Martha McSally (R) will most likely lose to Mark Kelly (D). She’s not a very charismatic or inspiring candidate. Plus, Kelly (D) has democrat mega-donors dumping millions of dollars into ad spending.

Republican Gains:

  • Alabama: Doug Jones (D) won by a fluke in 2017, and it’s not likely that he will win re-election. Also, he voted for impeaching Trump which was not a smart political move considering he’s from Alabama.

The Toss-ups:

  • South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) is in a tough fight to keep his seat. Democrat mega-donors have been pouring money into this race, and it’s going to be a close one. However, if I had to predict a winner, I would say Graham will narrowly pull out a victory.
  • North Carolina: Tom Tillis (R) could very well lose re-election. Cunningham (D) has been leading every poll. However, Cunningham was caught in two different extramarital affairs at the same time. This really hurt his campaign, and at this point the race is a toss-up. If Trump wins the state then he could help narrowly drag Tillis across the finish line. But, this race could go either way.
  • Michigan: Incumbent Gary Peters (D) could lose to John James (R). James is an great candidate who’s got a great campaign going. This race is a total toss-up. However, Peters probably has a slight edge on James right now.

Oct 23, 2020 (After the final Presidential debate)

If the senate is split 50/50 between the republicans and democrats, the vice president can vote to break a tie.

The map has really turned around for republicans. Last Month it looked like Arizona and North Carolina would for sure go to the democrat candidates, but recent polling and early voting turnout is looking much better for the republicans now.

Key Races:

  • Alabama: Doug Jones (D) in Alabama is finished. He won a special election in 2017 in a fluke victory. The republican running against him was accused of very terrible things with not much evidence (similar to Kavanaugh). Jones voted to impeach Trump, so I think it’s safe to say he’s finished. Most polling shows him losing by at least 8%.
  • Maine: Susan Collins is a republican who has held her seat for almost 30 years. She has always been a liberal republican and has taken some odd stances in the past. However, she voted for Kavanaugh in 2018, against impeachment, and has sided with the republicans in the senate on many hot topics. Now polls are starting to show her behind in Maine, and early voting data shows high democrat turnout in this state. Most likely, she’s going to lose her seat.
  • Arizona: Martha McSally (R) lost her senate race in 2018 against Kyrsten Sinema (D) and was appointed to John McCain’s seat after he passed away. She’s not a very good candidate, but she’s the best the republican party had at the moment. She running against Mark Kelly (D), who is a complete fraud. He has had millions of dollars dumped into his campaign by wealth elites, and he has flooded the airways with ads. He has disguised himself as a moderate, however, project veritas videos of his campaign works show a different story. At first, it looked like he was going to beat McSally by 5 to 10%. However, recent polling has shown McSally and Trump leading the democrats in the states. Also, Republicans are overperforming in the mail in/ early voting which is a very good sign. I would still say that Kelly (D) is probably going to win, but if Trump wins the state by 5% or more, McSally (R) could win in an upset
  • North Carolina: The vast majority of polls were showing the Democrat Cal Cunningham beating the Republican incumbent Tom Tillis by large margins. Cunningham is very charismatic and was raising tons of money for ads. However, he was caught cheating on his wife with two other women at the same time. They found text messages between him and the women. This has really hurt his chances considering he was running a campaign on morals and decency. I would say at this point the senate race here is a complete toss up.
  • Michigan: John James (R) is running against Democrat incumbent Gary Peters, and James is in a good position right now to flip the seat. He is an awesome candidate, and he is very charismatic. He has a good ad game and plenty of money for his campaign. He is still the underdog in the race for this seat, but polling and mail in/ early voting turnout is looking very good for Republicans in Michigan right now. I think this race could go either way at this point.
  • Colorado: The Republican incumbent Cory Gardner is probably going to lose. Denver has grown in population, and a lot of the suburbs have turned into democrat strongholds. Gardner voted against impeachment and has said he will vote for Amy Coney Barret. Overall, Colorado is a lost cause for Republicans.
  • Everything Else: There’s a chance that democrats could pick off Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina, or Montana. There’s also a chances that Republicans could win Minnesota. However, the chance are slim both of these cases to happen.

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