November 2, 2020 (Final Prediction)
Check out the Presidential election prediction as well.
- Gray – Toss-up
- Red – Solid Republican
- Light Red – Republican gains
- Blue – Solid Democrat
- Light Blue – Democrat gains
The Bottom Line: The republicans are within striking distance to take back the house. It is very unlikely that they will win, but there is still a chance. Most likely Republicans will gain several seat (5 to 15), but not enough to get a majority. The party that wins a majority of seats in the house will probably reflect who wins the presidential election. If Biden wins, Democrats will probably hold onto the house. If Trump wins, the Republicans will probably make several gains, and they might even take back the house.
October 23, 2020
Dark Blue – Solid Democrat district
Light Blue – Republican district that will probably flip to the Dems
Gray – a toss up district
Light Red – Democrat district that is likely to flip to the Republicans
Dark Red – Solid Republican district
So what are the General Trends?
- Democrats are seeing slight improvements in North Carolina (due to gerrymandering), Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
- Democrats are having good voter turnout in Pennsylvania and North Carolina in the early and mail in voting.
- Democrats have a slight advantage in early voter turnout in Texas’ 23rd district and Florida’s 26th and 27th districts. All three of these districts have massive Hispanic populations and are districts that Republicans were hoping to flip or hold onto. Republicans might still have a chance at winning them, but Trump voters and registered Republican would have to show up in massive numbers on election day for that to happen.
- This is the big Trend: Republicans are doing extremely good in mail in and early voter turnout in suburban districts across the country. Right now Republican turnout is extremely good in the suburban districts of the following cities:
- Texas: Dallas, Fort Worth, Huston, Austin
- Republican States: Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Salt Lake City, St. Louis, Omaha
- Rustbelt: Minneapolis, St. Paul, Chicago, Detroit, Lansing, Indianapolis
- The Northern districts of New Jersey
- The South: Atlanta, Little Rock
- Florida: Jacksonville, Tampa
- Republicans are also doing good in turnout in some key districts in California, Minnesota, New York, and Arizona.
The Big Picture: I would say at this point the Republican party is in a good position to narrowly take back the house. There are a lot of districts that could go down the wire either way, so we will just have to wait and see what happens on election night. However, the Republican voter turnout was not expected to be this high in suburban districts (or anywhere for that matter). If the majority of Trump voters wait until election day to vote in person, we might see a red wave on election night. (Keep in mind: I could be wrong, and Republicans would have to keep over performing in early voting for this to happen.) Also Republicans are still trailing democrats in voter turnout in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. This is anyone’s game at this point.